This time of year as we end November and have stuffed ourselves on Thanksgiving, we slide into December, and the conversation usually comes up about the upcoming winter weather.

Everyone wonders what kind of winter we will have. Will it be cold? Will we get a lot of snow? Will it be a mild season? Will we have a white Christmas?

There are always many predictions. Some go along with the annual Farmer’s Almanac. Some listen to the television weather meteorologists and their “expertise.” Then some go with the old signs, such as the color of the woolly worms, whether the squirrels are gathering more nuts and building their nests lower to the ground for the months ahead, or the number of fogs we have in August.

I am not sure anyone can really predict the weather perfectly, but it is always fun to talk about and listen to long-term forecasts.

While doing some research, the Farmer’s Almanac said this about our region.

“Chilly overall, with snowier spells mostly to the east.

Good idea to prep snow gear early, especially for eastern areas likely to see more flakes.

Temperatures: Below normal.

Coldest periods: mid to late December, early January, late January into early February and mid-March.

Precipitation: Below normal.

Snowfall: Near to above normal in the east, below normal in the west; snowiest periods in late December, early January, early and late February.”

So there is that forecast if you believe that annual publication.

What about the old-fashioned country signs?

The woolly worm caterpillar has a reputation for predicting winter weather, but its predictions are not always accurate. I have to admit, I usually look for them. But I didn’t this year.

Folklore says winters are based on the number of sections and the width of the fuzzy black and brown bands on the caterpillar. The widest brown bands mean we will have a milder winter, while the caterpillar with the widest black band is predicting us to have a harsher winter.

Many Appalachian folk look at other signs to predict the winter ahead.

Squirrel behavior, the thickness of onion or apple skins, or the number of fogs in August are some of the things old-timers use to decide whether the winter will be harsh or mild. The old saying goes that for every foggy morning in August, there will be a snowfall in the winter ahead.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its long-range forecast for December 2025 through February 2026. The forecast tells two different stories. One says it will be a cold, wet winter for some states, while others have a warm, mild season.

They base much of their prediction on La Niña.

“The precipitation outlook also predicts two different fates: wet weather and snow up north, but dry patterns down south,” one website stated about the NOAA outlook. Our region is somewhere in the middle.

WKYT chief meteorologist Chris Bailey predicted another colder, snowier-than-normal winter for Kentucky during his annual winter weather forecast, providing specific temperature and snowfall projections through March.

“Another colder than normal and snowier than normal winter is likely for our region,” Bailey said. “There’s a chance for this winter to have a period very similar to what happened this past winter.”

Of course, we already had a small snowfall recently, and it is not officially winter until later in December.

I guess there is nothing we can really do about the weather. Whether it is a long, hot, dry summer, and rainy and cool spring, an unseasonably cooler autumn and of course a cold, snowy winter.

It is just a part of life. There is nothing we can do about the weather. Just be thankful if you have a home and heat in the winter or air conditioning in the summer.

Until next time.

(Kyle Lovern is a longtime journalist in the Tug Valley. He is now a retired freelance writer and columnist for the Mountain Citizen.)